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2024/08/21
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Driving for monetization improvement while maintaining stabilizing market share

原文出处: 招银国际   贡献者:研报专业户
阿里巴巴(BABA)\r

Alibaba reported 1QFY25 (March year-end) results: total revenue wasRMB243.2bn, up 3.9% YoY, 2.6% shy of Bloomberg consensus due to reductionof certain direct sales business and softer-than-expected customermanagement revenue (CMR) growth, while adjusted EBITA/non-GAAP netincome for the quarter was RMB45.0bn/40.3bn, both of which were 6% betterthan consensus, driven by better-than-expected operating efficiencyimprovement across nearly all major segments. The results demonstratedAlibaba’s capability in driving for operating efficiency improvement acrossbusiness segment, in our view, and management has illustrated a clear path todrive for monetization improvement of Taobao & Tmall (T&T) Group in thecoming quarters. Key strategic growth areas such as Cloud Intelligence Group(CIG) and Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) are on track tosupport Alibaba’s long-term revenue and earnings growth, and the potential dualprimary listing in Hong Kong and inclusion into Stock Connect could drivererating for valuation, in our view. Our SOTP based target price was lifted by1.5% to US$126.9 driven by potentially better monetization outlook from CMRbusiness. Maintain BUY.\r

Management remains upbeat on potential of monetizationimprovement for T&T Group. Alibaba generated revenue of RMB80.1bnfrom its CMR in 1QFY25, up 0.6% YoY, primarily due to high-single-digitYoY growth in online GMV, while partly offset by a decline in take rate whichmanagement attributed to the increase in proportion of GMV generated fromnew models that currently have lower monetization. However, managementis upbeat on the potential to drive back CMR growth inline with GMV growthin the coming quarters, aided by: 1) incremental technical services chargedon merchants; 2) potential increase in monetization from the new models;3) the increase in adoption of Quanzhantui, which features automatedbidding, optimized targeting and performance dashboard visualization, andis expected to align the interest among merchants, e-commerce platformsand consumers, as it could enhance consumer experience and merchantsROI at the same time, and can help expand the potential traffic pool formonetization.\r

Adjusted EBITA margin of cloud business has potential to expandfurther. Revenue of CIG came in at RMB26.5bn in 1QFY25, up 5.9% YoY,driven by double-digit public cloud growth and increasing adoption of AIrelated products, while adjusted EBITA margin for CIG reached 8.8% in1QFY25, expanding 5.1ppt YoY, thanks to improving product mix throughmanagement’s focus on public cloud adoption and operating efficiency.Management believes that there is still room for margin expansion althoughincremental capex investments will be made to fulfil the mounting industrydemand for AI cloud.\r

Remains committed to enhance shareholder return. During 1QFY25,Alibaba repurchased 77mn ADS for a total of US$5.8bn, and the netdecrease in ordinary shares implies a 2.3% net reduction in outstandingshares as of 31 Mar 2024.
85.38 +0.31% +0.26

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